Fanny Lehmann

Recent advances in AI weather forecasting have led to the emergence of so-called "foundation models", typically defined by expensive pretraining and minimal fine-tuning for downstream tasks. However, in the natural sciences, a desirable foundation model should also encode meaningful statistical relationships between the underlying physical variables. This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Aurora foundation model in predicting hydrological variables, which were not considered during pretraining. We introduce a lightweight approach using shallow decoders trained on the latent representations of the pretrained model to predict these new variables. As a baseline, we compare this to fine-tuning the full model, which allows further optimization of the latent space while incorporating new variables into both inputs and outputs. The decoder-based approach requires 50% less training time and 35% less memory, while achieving strong accuracy across various hydrological variables and preserving desirable properties of the foundation model, such as autoregressive stability. Notably, decoder accuracy depends on the physical correlation between the new variables and those used during pretraining, indicating that Aurora’s latent space captures meaningful physical relationships. In this sense, we argue that an important quality metric for foundation models in Earth sciences is their ability to be extended to new variables without a full fine-tuning. This provides a new perspective for making foundation models more accessible to communities with limited computational resources, while supporting broader adoption in Earth sciences.

The water budget equation describes the exchange of water between the land, ocean, and atmosphere. Being able to adequately close the water budget gives confidence in our ability to model and/or observe the spatio-temporal variations in the water cycle and its components. Due to advances in observation techniques, satellite sensors, and modelling, a number of data products are available that represent the components of water budget in both space and time. Despite these advances, closure of the water budget at the global scale has been elusive. In this study, we attempt to close the global water budget using precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff data at the catchment scale. The large number of recent state-of-the-art datasets provides a new evaluation of well-used datasets. These estimates are compared to terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes as measured by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. We investigated 189 river basins covering more than 90% of the continental land area. TWS changes derived from the water balance equation were compared against GRACE data using two metrics: the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the cyclostationary NSE. These metrics were used to assess the performance of more than 1600 combinations of the various datasets considered. We found a positive NSE and cyclostationary NSE in 99% and 62% of the basins examined respectively. This means that TWS changes reconstructed from the water balance equation were more accurate than the long-term (NSE) and monthly (cyclostationary NSE) mean of GRACE time series in the corresponding basins. By analysing different combinations of the datasets that make up the water balance, we identified data products that performed well in certain regions based on, for example, climatic zone. We identified that some of the good results were obtained due to the cancellation of errors in poor estimates of water budget components. Therefore, we used coefficients of variation to determine the relative quality of a data product, which helped us to identify bad combinations giving us good results. In general, water budget components from ERA5-Land and the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) performed better than other products for most climatic zones. Conversely, the latest version of CLSM, v2.2, performed poorly for evapotranspiration in snow-dominated catchments compared, for example, with its predecessor and other datasets available. Thus, the nature of the catchment dynamics and balance between components affects the optimum combination of datasets. For regional studies, the combination of datasets that provides the most realistic TWS for a basin will depend on its climatic conditions and factors that cannot be determined a priori. We believe that the results of this study provide a road map for studying the water budget at catchment scale.

Numerical simulations are essential tools to evaluate the solution of the wave equation in complex settings, such as three-dimensional (3D) domains with heterogeneous properties. However, their application is limited by high computational costs and existing surrogate models lack the flexibility of numerical solvers. This work introduces the Multiple-Input Fourier Neural Operator (MIFNO) to deal with structured 3D fields representing material properties as well as vectors describing the source characteristics. The MIFNO is applied to the problem of elastic wave propagation in the Earth’s crust. It is trained on the HEMEWS-3D database containing Image 1 earthquake simulations in different heterogeneous domains with random source positions and orientations. Outputs are time- and space-dependent surface wavefields. The MIFNO predictions are assessed as good to excellent based on Goodness-Of-Fit (GOF) criteria. Wave arrival times and wave fronts propagation are very accurate since Image 2 of the predictions have an excellent phase GOF (larger than Image 3). The fluctuations amplitudes are good for Image 4 of the predictions (envelope GOF larger than Image 5) and excellent for Image 6. The envelope score is hindered by the small-scale fluctuations that are challenging to capture due to the spectral bias inherent to neural networks and the complex physical phenomena associated with high-frequency features. Nevertheless, the MIFNO can generalize to sources located outside the training domain and it shows good generalization ability to a real complex overthrust geology. When focusing on a region of interest, transfer learning is an efficient approach to improve the accuracy with limited additional costs, since GOF scores improved by more than 1 GOF unit with only Image 7 additional specific samples. The MIFNO is the first surrogate model offering the flexibility of an earthquake simulator with varying sources and material properties. Its good accuracy and massive speed-up offer new perspectives to replace numerical simulations in many-query problems.